Friday, September 19, 2014

Confirmation Bias

We often seek information that confirms our decision, rather than systematically seeking disconfirming data.  You should build into any decision making process or any organization someone who questions decisions.  Set up a "red team."  Designate a team skeptic who will also question decisions.  In an investment decision, designate someone on the team to take the opposite side of the issue.  Remember 12 Angry Men.  Remember the example of the Challenger disaster, where they did not recognize the data that could have led them to avoid the tragedy, because they were seeking data that would confirm their "go" criteria.

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